, a decision theory thought experiment. The setup is as follows:

There are two boxes designated A and B. The player is given a choice between taking only box B or taking both boxes A and B. This market predicts which predicts whether the player takes just one box or both boxes.

Both boxes are transparent, i.e. the player knows exactly how much mana is contained inside them.

At market close, the amount in box B will be set, and I will select a random, anonymous market participant to be the player in the Newcomb's problem. The player will decide between taking only box B or both boxes. I will send a manalink to the player for the amount of mana contained in the box or boxes they take (adjusted to remove the amount of profits/losses of their outstanding shares in the market).

This market resolves YES if they take only box B, and NO if they take both boxes.

To be eligible to be selected as the player: