MANIFOLD
Will I one-box in Newcomb's Problem?
6
Ṁ110Ṁ135
2100
91%
chance

Resolves once we have the technology to perform the experiment. The stakes must be significantly higher than the amount of mana in this market, and high enough to make the amount in the second box plausibly matter more to me than any signaling motive.

Resolves N/A if I experience information-theoretic death or the state of the world is such that people who one-box in Newcomb's problem are at a disadvantage.

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