This is based on /Tetraspace/will-the-responder-onebox-in-this-t but with modified amounts and with a market predicting the specific responder's decision.

Here I will run an instance of Newcomb's problem, a decision theory thought experiment. The setup is as follows:

There are two boxes designated A and B. The player is given a choice between taking only box B or taking both boxes A and B. There will be a Manifold prediction market which predicts whether the player takes just one box or both boxes.

• Box A always contains M$1.

• Box B contains M$1000 times the probability that Manifold predicts of the player taking only one box. (E.g. if the market predicts 30% chance of taking only one box, Box 2 contains Ṁ300)

Both boxes are transparent, i.e. the player knows exactly how much mana is contained inside them.

I will select a random participant in this market at close to be the player in the Newcomb's problem. After selecting them, I will create another market where Manifold predicts whether they will pick only one box. (The player is welcome to talk about their thinking, or to say nothing. They are not allowed to trade in the market.)

At the conclusion of that market, the amount in box B will be set, and the player will decide between taking only box B or both boxes. The player will receive a manalink for the amount of mana contained in the box or boxes they take.

This market resolves YES if they take only box B, and NO if they take both boxes.

Fine print:

• If the player doesn't respond within 2 days of being selected to confirm that they are playing, or doesn't make their decision within 2 days, I will randomly choose another participant to replace them

• The player must agree not to have any financial interest in their decision outside of the game. If they do not agree, another participant will be randomly selected. No outside bribes or bets in derivative markets. And they must divest their shares in this market - I will purchase the shares at fair market price (i.e. market closing price, unless the price changed substantially near the end, in which case I reserve the right to adjust as needed). If they hold >1000 shares then I reserve the right to randomly select a different participant so that divesting isn't too expensive.

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