Resolves Yes if on November 1, 2024 Kyrsten Sinema is listed on https://www.democrats.senate.gov/about-senate-dems/our-caucus. Otherwise No.

Background

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/09/sinema-arizona-senate-independent-00073216

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent, delivering a jolt to Democrats’ narrow majority and Washington along with it.

In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/us/politics/kyrsten-sinema-democrats.html

Ms. Sinema has not said whether she would caucus with the Democrats, as do two other independent senators, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine. She told Politico that she would not caucus with Republicans, and that her ideology and voting habits would not change.

Note: it's not clearly whether it would matter whether she officially caucuses with the Democrats. The impact depends on to what extent she continues to vote with them on legislation and Senate committees and floor procedure. But her decision on whether to officially caucus with the Democrats may provide some signal about those aspects.

Fine print

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