Resolves YES if before the end of 2023 (ET), Kalshi has a market on the outcome of any of the following 2024 US federal elections:
Presidential election
Specific Congressional races (House or Senate)
Congressional control (House or Senate)
For background, Kalshi's proposal to create these markets is currently being reviewed by the CFTC: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/06/24/cftc-kicks-off-review-of-kalshis-congressional-control-prediction-markets/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
They previously applied for election markets in 2022 and were denied: https://manifold.markets/SG/will-kalshi-receive-regulatory-appr
Longer timeframe: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-kalshi-have-a-market-on-the-20
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ37 | |
| 2 | Ṁ35 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8780-23
CFTC Disapproves KalshiEX LLC’s Congressional Control Contracts