Will I believe the AI risk letter markets were priced rationally?

Will I believe the AI risk letter markets were priced rationally?

23

470Ṁ2408

resolved May 31

Resolved as

80%

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to a percentage score of how rationally I think the linked markets were priced, based on my extremely subjective opinion. Resolves after sufficient relevant information becomes available to me, or after I believe it's unlikely that more relevant info will become available.

Clearly the price is very volatile, so I'm not going to treat that as irrational for the purpose of this question - I'll look at basically a moving average of the market price.

I will not trade on this market.

The markets:

https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize

https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize-511a499bd82e

https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize-393de260ec26

Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?

57% chance. Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of May 2023. Resolves NO otherwise. We’ll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in AI, and at least one Turing award winner. It may ad…

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