Will I believe the AI risk letter markets were priced rationally?
23
470Ṁ2408resolved May 31
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Resolves to a percentage score of how rationally I think the linked markets were priced, based on my extremely subjective opinion. Resolves after sufficient relevant information becomes available to me, or after I believe it's unlikely that more relevant info will become available.
Clearly the price is very volatile, so I'm not going to treat that as irrational for the purpose of this question - I'll look at basically a moving average of the market price.
I will not trade on this market.
The markets:
https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize
https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize-511a499bd82e
https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize-393de260ec26
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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