Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by July 31, 2023?
Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by July 31, 2023?
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370Ṁ87kresolved May 30
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Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of July 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
We'll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in AI, and at least one Turing award winner. It may address any sorts of risks from powerful AI.
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I think the FLI letter will be the coordination point until at least August. It's not like anyone has a better idea than a training pause.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.