Will existential risks from AI still be considered a top problem to work on within the EA community by the end of 2024?
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023?
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?
In a year, will I think that risk of AI apocalypse is between 1 and 10%?
Will I observe significant Negative Polarization around AI generated art in 2023?
Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk has been developed by October 15, 2023?
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2023 be AI-related?
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before 2024?
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before March 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M subsidy added]
Will Gallup's poll on America's most important problems have at least 1% of respondents identify AI by the end of 2023?
Will a large scale, government-backed AI alignment project be funded before 2025?