See https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-black-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
I have a specific secret goal that I have written down. Resolves YES if it is achieved, otherwise NO. (This isn't my only goal or the only method for picking moves, and whether I achieve my other goals will not impact resolution of this market.)
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ5 | |
| 2 | Ṁ4 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
Going to resolve this to 75%. The goal was:
Secret goal: Rooks are the best! Never lose a rook. Any other piece can be sacrificed in favor of keeping a rook alive. Ideally, promote pawns to more rooks.
No rooks were lost, but the bonus goal wasn't met, so I'm arbitrarily picking 75% as the resolution value. I probably should have specified the exact scoring beforehand.
@jack so silly I thought it was something serious like profits from unexpected market behavior subtly induced through overwhelming economic power (eg “I’ll bailout whoever wants to join my side at 5-10% price range, realizing up to ~3k in profits while gradually giving them control of votes (but they must have more NO in secondary), eventually myself becoming near indiferent, and then I’d allow another pump and dump, goal is 5k in profits”) 😅
@deagol Haha, those sort of profit goals were just the normal goal, and it's important to be flexible in how to achieve it. I did set up orders so that it would have been profitable for someone else to come in and do the manipulation, but nobody bit, so I did it myself.
Buy a bunch of NO here
Buy a bunch of YES on my market
hedge with an alt to make it a risk-free wash trade
Requires enough capital to shake a fist at @jack, ~20k is probably sufficient
Start voting "Resign". At 20k you have about a 13% chance each move of winning -- it will take a few moves, but eventually you'll win. Presumably @jack's goals are unmet if we resign early
@deagol I will very likely vote in whatever way best achieves my goals, which are profit and fun. I will likely vote for resign at some point, given the massive amount of NO shares people have traded to me. If my position changes so I have more YES than NO, then I will try to make sure we win.