Resolves YES if Prize Points held as of 9/1 can be redeemed for USD prizes on the Manifold website before the end of 2024. Resolves NO otherwise at the end of 2024, or if Manifold makes an announcement that it will not happen.

Context: Manifold is planning to launch cash prizes but current predictions are that it may be in a different form than the current Prize Points system.

See also:

Details

The introduction of a new currency, even if it is called Prize Points as well, will not matter. This market is about existing balances of Prize Points on 9/1.

To count as "redeemable for cash" there must be a direct or indirect way to get cash in exchange for the Prize Points, it must be risk-free and cannot involve making trades on markets, and it must be such that 100,000 Prize Points can be converted to at least $70 USD (i.e. close to the current rate at which mana can be purchased, but with plenty of allowance for fees). Therefore, if Prize Points are converted into mana and then mana can be directly redeemed for cash, that would count; but if Prize Points are converted into mana and then you can only get cash after making some trades, that would not count.

All steps in this process must be officially supported by Manifold. For this market, it does not matter if any aspect of this is later found to be legally acceptable or legally unacceptable, only whether it is officially supported by Manifold at the time.

Donations to charity, merchandise, or gift cards do not count - you must be able to receive cash in USD. Other currencies do not count (foreign currencies, crypto, etc).

It counts if many users can do this even if there are limitations - e.g. it can be limited to only users in one country or state, to users over 18, to bets on a limited set of markets, etc. and that would still suffice.

It must be possible to do on the Manifold website.