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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/traces-explosives-found-nord-stream-pipelines-sweden-says-2022-11-18/ "Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says"

As per previous comments, now that Sweden's investigation has confirmed it as sabotage, this should resolve YES.

If anyone has objections to the resolution plan I talked about earlier, let me know:

My intent was to wait a while for more information to come out, e.g. wait for the completed investigation (if it comes out before the end of 2022). If nothing changes by the end of the year, this would resolve YES.

Looks like the investigations are still in progress but they already seem fairly conclusive

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosions.html

But beyond acknowledging that explosives were used in acts of deliberate sabotage, investigators have disclosed few details of their findings.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/nord-stream-gas-leaks-suspicion-of-gross-sabotage-sweden-says.html

Sweden’s national security service on Thursday said a crime scene investigation into the gas leaks from two underwater pipelines connecting Russia to Germany “strengthened the suspicions of gross sabotage.”

Sweden’s Security Service said the investigation found there had been detonations at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Swedish exclusive economic zone, which caused “extensive damage” to the pipelines.

Basically the same thing they were saying before, but with increased confidence.

If I try to interpret all the hedging language and put a number on their beliefs, I'd say their belief is 90%+ that it was intentional sabotage.

My intent was to wait a while for more information to come out, e.g. wait for the completed investigation (if it comes out before the end of 2022). If nothing changes by the end of the year, this would resolve YES.

There hasn’t been a hint of “consensus reporting” or any nation claiming it wasn’t a deliberate sabotage—EU, Russia, Ukraine, US all agree it was

Not clear why this exists or wasn’t already resolved Yes

(governments, media, conspiracy theorists, deep deep deep conspiracy theorists, wokepedia, so far beyond consensus that some mechanic blog with bizarre writing was the only thing to sort-of make a half hearted, zero-brained argument for it being the biggest coincidence of all time )

“Professor, I don’t want to get into tit or tat about what did or not [get bombed by the US]”

Copying a comment from https://manifold.markets/NicholasCharette73b6/which-country-is-primarily-responsi#pRjjV4rBkErnZc8ZDryx

This piece shifted my priors a bit, especially on the question of whether or not an accident could be responsible given two separate incidents: https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

The TLDR is that there is a common failure condition for pipelines that could have arisen here, and that a sloppy attempt to fix it could lead to an explosion. Two attacks ~17 hours apart would imply either incompetent government operations or a kind of sloppy (but very determined!) freelance effort, whereas rushed maintenance could lead to that pattern.

@jack Why should the fact that gas is explosive matter if there isn't enough oxygen in water to fuel the explosion?

@JohnKy I think the claim is that there was a violent explosion with the pipe rupturing / depressurizing, which can be very destructive even without the gas combusting. But I'm not sure, I'm just copying someone else's comment. From a quick google, I found https://www.quora.com/Can-an-underwater-gas-pipeline-explode-once-gas-is-leaked which seems to agree with my understanding.

This looks like it should resolve NO or N/A, since this happened on September 26, not September 27

@NicholasCharette73b6 See Berliner Zeitung’s article published September 26.

You're right, good catch. The article I linked also says Monday (the 26th). This is one of those cases where I would rather just edit the question text. I had considered writing "on or about 9/27", too bad I didn't.

Looks like you're the only one who traded based on this, I'll take your NO shares at the price you paid for them or just tip you an appropriate amount.

@jack I'd like to return my NO shares to you; let me know how you want me to do it. Some ideas:
* I could sell in small amounts over time to minimize slippage, and then transfer the results to you.
* I could set a limit order at a price you want to sell the shares at, and then transfer the result to you.
* I could hold until resolution and send you the returns if it resolves NO.

@NicholasCharette73b6 Easiest way is you set a limit order to buy M$67 YES at 70%, and I fill it.

The math is that you have 96 NO shares that you paid M$29 for, so the average probability you bought then at was 1 - 29/96 = 70%, you buy 96 YES shares at this price (96 * 70% = M$67) and then your 96 YES + 96 NO automatically turns into M$96, which is equal to the total amount you spent, leaving you at net 0 shares and M$. Hopefully I did that math right!

@jack Yes, this should work. I’ve placed this limit order.

@jack I’ll of course tip my M$30 back once you trade with my order

@NicholasCharette73b6 Done. No worries, keep it as a tip. :)

Three simultaneous leaks in two different pipelines, when the pipelines were designed to literally never need maintenance. Pretty clearly not a "natural" event.

@PeterBorah I suppose it could be some sort of accident, though I have some trouble imagining what could have affected three areas simultaneously. (Something at the source? I don't know enough about pipelines to come up with possibilities.)

@PeterBorah Yeah, and there's also reporting that there's evidence they were explosions (not, e.g. an earthquake)