Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?
11
1kṀ559
2028
19%
chance

Part of a trio of forecasts made by the same New Statesman Article (see my other questions)

Spirit: Judged broadly, does this criticism that longtermist belief increases the chance of pre-emptive violence (the New Statesman article compares it to Christianity as a reference class) hold up?

Resolution Criteria: BBC News and The New Statesman (or any 2 other credible news sources) report that an act of violence has taken place after the creation date of the article (2023-08-03)

AND

The violence was pre-emptive (quote from reporting or judged by me)

AND

The violent perpetrator self-identifies as Longtermist, Effective Altruist, Utilitarian, Peter-Singer influenced, Toby Ord influenced, Will McAskill influenced, Post-Longtermist or any sufficiently close successor belief system.

[Paywall]

https://magazine.newstatesman.com/2023/08/03/longtermism-is-a-threat-to-humanity/content.html

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