Which prediction platform will be most accurate in forecasting the 2022 midterms?

Election Betting Odds

19%

Polymarket

18%

PredictIt

17%

538

17%

Metaculus

17%

Manifold

12%

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Manifold DreamBot

Jack

bought Ṁ5 Manifold from 10% to 12% Jack

bought Ṁ30 Metaculus from 5% to 17% Jack

bought Ṁ30 Election B...tting Odds from 9% to 22% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ5 Manifold from 12% to 14% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ2 Manifold from 11% to 12% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ5 Manifold from 8% to 11% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ1 Polymarket from 25% to 26% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ1 PredictIt from 25% to 26% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ5 PredictIt from 23% to 25% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ5 Polymarket from 24% to 26% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ5 PredictIt from 22% to 24% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ5 PredictIt from 19% to 22% KM

bought Ṁ5 Metaculus from 4% to 6% Robin Foster

bought Ṁ5 Election B...tting Odds from 9% to 12% Martin

bought Ṁ28 538 from 17% to 30% MP

bought Ṁ5 538 from 14% to 17% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ5 Polymarket from 31% to 33% Gigacasting

sold Ṁ6 PredictIt from 29% to 26% S G

bought Ṁ5 Polymarket from 27% to 29% S G

bought Ṁ25 PredictIt from 17% to 30% J. F. Jurchen

bought Ṁ5 PredictIt from 14% to 17% J. F. Jurchen

bought Ṁ5 Manifold from 12% to 15% J. F. Jurchen

bought Ṁ5 Polymarket from 32% to 35% Tomek K ☑️

bought Ṁ4 Polymarket from 30% to 32% Jf P

bought Ṁ2 PredictIt from 14% to 15% Tomek K ☑️

bought Ṁ15 Election B...tting Odds from 5% to 16% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ5 Polymarket from 32% to 34% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ5 PredictIt from 13% to 17% Jack

bought Ṁ5 PredictIt from 9% to 13% Niclas Kupper

bought Ṁ10 Polymarket from 28% to 34% cos

bought Ṁ3 Polymarket from 26% to 28% cos

bought Ṁ3 538 from 27% to 29% cos

bought Ṁ2 PredictIt from 9% to 10% cos

bought Ṁ2 Metaculus from 8% to 10% cos

bought Ṁ1 Election B...tting Odds from 6% to 7% cos

bought Ṁ1 538 from 27% to 28% cos

bought Ṁ1 Polymarket from 28% to 29% arae

bought Ṁ10 Polymarket from 20% to 28% arae

bought Ṁ10 538 from 23% to 30% arae

bought Ṁ10 Manifold from 16% to 25% Symbol Project

bought Ṁ10 Polymarket from 16% to 25% A

bought Ṁ1 PredictIt from 13% to 14% Scott Lawrence

bought Ṁ3 Metaculus from 10% to 13% Scott Lawrence

bought Ṁ3 Election B...tting Odds from 7% to 10% Scott Lawrence

bought Ṁ3 PredictIt from 11% to 14% Scott Lawrence

bought Ṁ3 Metaculus from 7% to 11% Scott Lawrence

bought Ṁ3 PredictIt from 8% to 11% Olivia

bought Ṁ2 Manifold from 20% to 23% Olivia

bought Ṁ1 Polymarket from 19% to 20% Olivia

bought Ṁ5 538 from 32% to 37%