What percentage of LTFF grant dollars will go to AI in late 2022?
70%
chance
Jan 2, 2023
M$5 bet
What percentage of funding allocated by the Long Term Future Fund (https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future), on their last grant report published in 2022, will be for work that is primarily related to AI? This resolves to the percentage as computed from the payout reports at https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future#payout-reports. I will broadly categorize each grant and compute the percentage of funding in dollars that is primarily related to AI. You can see my analysis on the most recent grant report at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NnoyrSmsBBCcL8-rNAoqAMKfHiXR_Y97-yqm0i2eQ0E/edit which had 73% in the AI category, 22% in the global catastrophic risk category, and 5% on other categories. This resolves based on the LTFF's last published grant report as of 1/1/2023.
Austin

Austin bought M$5 of NO22 days ago

FWIW LTFF sent Manifold a $200k grant, so bidding this down slightly (we do have some rudimentary bag-of-words model for ranking our feed but I don't think that puts us into "AI" 😛)