What percentage of LTFF grant dollars will go to AI in late 2022?

100Ṁ119

resolved Jan 24

Resolved as

95%

ALL

What percentage of funding allocated by the Long Term Future Fund (https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future), on their last grant report published in 2022, will be for work that is primarily related to AI? This resolves to the percentage as computed from the payout reports at https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future#payout-reports. I will broadly categorize each grant and compute the percentage of funding in dollars that is primarily related to AI. You can see my analysis on the most recent grant report at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NnoyrSmsBBCcL8-rNAoqAMKfHiXR_Y97-yqm0i2eQ0E/edit which had 73% in the AI category, 22% in the global catastrophic risk category, and 5% on other categories. This resolves based on the LTFF's last published grant report as of 1/1/2023.

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Hmm, the LTFF hasn't published any payout report since December 2021: https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future#payout-reports. Unless I'm missing something?

This might have to do with this change https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LKdtHdETxSYAXwoW6/public-reports-are-now-optional-for-ea-funds-grantees

I anticipated that the LTFF might not have a grant report published regularly, which is why I said

last grant report published in 2022

and

This resolves based on the LTFF's last published grant report as of 1/1/2023.

But I did not anticipate that there would be no grant report published in 2022 at all.

Any thoughts on how I should resolve? The two statements above do contradict each other, and the situation also contradicts the title's "late 2022" (although that is less binding); so I think N/A resolution is probably appropriate.

predictedNO

@jack Actually -- I think LTFF and the other EA Funds grants are now being reported in a single database: https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/grants

(It did irk me that they didn't update their payout reports page to mention this)

My spreadsheet calculation is that 95% of the funds went to AI: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NnoyrSmsBBCcL8-rNAoqAMKfHiXR_Y97-yqm0i2eQ0E/edit#gid=1519858074

Will resolve in a couple days in case someone wants to check my work.

FWIW LTFF sent Manifold a $200k grant, so bidding this down slightly (we do have some rudimentary bag-of-words model for ranking our feed but I don't think that puts us into "AI" 😛)