If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively before 2024, will a strategic nuclear weapon be detonated offensively within one year?
resolved Jan 1

This question aims to forecast the likelihood of escalation from tactical to strategic nuclear weapons.

This question will resolve as N/A if no nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. If such a detonation occurs, resolves YES if within one year, any strategic nuclear weapon is detonated (that includes the case if the first detonation is strategic). Resolves NO otherwise.

  • For the purposes of this question, a strategic nuclear weapon is a weapon designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior (away from the war front) against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets, while a non-strategic nuclear weapon is a nuclear weapon designed mostly to be used on a battlefield, near friendly forces, or on or near friendly territory. There is no exact definition on weapon yields or ranges. But note that this question is about the type of weapon, not the type of target; it's conceivable that a non-strategic weapon could be used against the sort of target strategic weapons are designed for or vice versa.

  • Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.

  • The detonation does not need to be deliberate to count towards question resolution - an inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorized detonation can count.

I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive, and whether it counts as strategic.

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