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MANIFOLD
Will 20+ countries introduce injectable lenacapavir for HIV prevention by 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ1
2027
50%
chance

Lenacapavir is a twice-yearly injectable HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) option recommended by WHO in 2025.

Resolves YES if at least 20 countries have introduced lenacapavir for HIV prevention by 31 December 2027, based primarily on WHO reporting.

“Introduced” means implementation for HIV prevention has begun in the country, rather than simply regulatory approval, a planned introduction or participation in a clinical trial.

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