itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡
closes Apr 1
Spacex
Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before April 1 2023?
3%
chance

SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).

This market is a copy of The World Ahead forecasting challenge by Good Judgement and The Economist.

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JonathanNankivell avatar
Jonathan Nankivellis predicting NO at 24%

Why the big change in market price? Have I missed an announcement?

Birger avatar
Birgeris predicting YES at 24%

@JonathanNankivell "Elon said there was a 50% chance of success, which naturally caused the market to move to 25% haha

Mqrius avatar
Mqriussold Ṁ121 of NO

@JonathanNankivell Mostly based on the "before April 1" aspect. Check out the first comment here from 2 days ago:

MaxG avatar
MaxGis predicting NO at 24%

“At SpaceX we specialize in converting things from impossible to late”

Elon Musk says this here: https://youtu.be/XP5k3ZzPf_0?t=132

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
Will a Starship orbital flight test occur by the end of April?
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
Will a Starship orbital flight test occur by the end of March?
JonathanNankivell avatar
Jonathan Nankivell
Conditional on authorisation, will SpaceX attempt an orbital flight of Starship before May?
Mqrius avatar
Mqrius
Will SpaceX launch at least 3 Starships to space in 2023?
JonathanNankivell avatar
Jonathan Nankivell
Will the FAA authorise Starship to launch before May?
ACXBot avatar
ACX BotBot
40. Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2023?
Vortex avatar
Vortex
Will Starship complete a successful orbital test flight before Vulcan can complete it’s first Mission?
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
Will SpaceX launch at least 2 more Starships to space within 300 days of their first?