Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before April 1 2023?
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SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
This market is a copy of The World Ahead forecasting challenge by Good Judgement and The Economist.
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@JonathanNankivell "Elon said there was a 50% chance of success, which naturally caused the market to move to 25% haha
@JonathanNankivell Mostly based on the "before April 1" aspect. Check out the first comment here from 2 days ago:
“At SpaceX we specialize in converting things from impossible to late”
Elon Musk says this here: https://youtu.be/XP5k3ZzPf_0?t=132