itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡
closes Apr 1
Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before April 1 2023?

SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (

This market is a copy of The World Ahead forecasting challenge by Good Judgement and The Economist.

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JonathanNankivell avatar
Jonathan Nankivellis predicting NO at 24%

Why the big change in market price? Have I missed an announcement?

Birger avatar
Birgeris predicting YES at 24%

@JonathanNankivell "Elon said there was a 50% chance of success, which naturally caused the market to move to 25% haha

Mqrius avatar
Mqriussold Ṁ121 of NO

@JonathanNankivell Mostly based on the "before April 1" aspect. Check out the first comment here from 2 days ago:

MaxG avatar
MaxGis predicting NO at 24%

“At SpaceX we specialize in converting things from impossible to late”

Elon Musk says this here: