Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market (5000m prize voting based contest)
Basic
103
50k
2027
94%
He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released
91%
Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better
85%
Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%
81%
There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.
80%
His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered
78%
He travels to Chile during his first term
70%
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]
69%
Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?
68%
Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]
67%
Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39
66%
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]
65%
US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina
64%
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]
60%
He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX
60%
Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]
60%
He wins reelection to a 2nd term
58%
Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place
56%
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]
53%
A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him
50%
LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?

Javier Milei is bringing a new style of leadership to Argentina. This is a collection of a ton of simple binary markets about what may happen during his first term of four years!

Have fun betting even 1m on each, then tune in to your notifications system to get updated as we see how things go over the next few years! Best of luck to Argentina no matter where that resides.

Rules

Things he did during the entire term, including before creation of this market, all count, based on the beginning of his term; for example, if he has already left Argentina during his presidency, then the claim about him leaving would YES.

In general the claims end in Dec 2027 at the normal time of the succession of whoever wins the next election.

Most claims relating to a "term" relate to the original planned term of 4 years; if that is changed, we still cover that time period as best we can preserving the intent, which is always to make the claim as "meaningful" as possible. i.e. to avoid resolving on technicalities only a lawyer would care about, but rather, as long as it doesn't go against the written text, to go by what is meant by the term. i.e. if we say "he dies from the bite of a poisonous snake" we would not be pedantic and say "actually, only venomous snakes can kill him; poisonous is a term for something which if you contact/eat it, you can die". To sum up: I prefer the conventional, normal meanings of terms, not privileging the extremely specific biological/legal/etc meanings when they diverge from common speech.

Economist data sources:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/12/15/the-worlds-richest-countries-in-2023

https://www.heritage.org/index/visualize?cnts=argentina|unitedstates&src=ranking

https://index.goodcountry.org/

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021

https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/rankings

state dept travel advisories: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Argentina.html

I will find corresponding pages for when the market is closing and use them.

All comparison number metrics will use the "at that time" version since the 2023 version may not exist.

Regarding the LLM questions, here's a sample. I will average all the outputs (including averaging LLM's output range (e.g. "75-85%" is treated as an 80%), and that final average is the "score". If the LLM repeatedly refuses to do this, we will unfortunately NA. I've linked it to OpenAI; if OpenAI has no public LLM available, or the LLM is not updated at all, then if possible we will use an OpenAI style public LLM or earlier version, or competitor, if data is updated; if no such thing exists, we will NA.

LLM Question 1 Prompt: ""Rate Javier Milei's performance in Argentina from 0-100% on these factors: [economics, policy, defense, culture, finance, general leadership] from the perspective of a modern high school history textbook in a private school in Manhattan.

LLM Question 2:

"For each of these media outlets, please imagine how they might respond to this question: 'please rate Javier Milei's overall performance as president of Argentina on a scale of 0-100%': (The Economist, NY Post, The WSJ, The New Yorker, BBC, Al Jazeera English, Time Magazine, Fox News, Der Spiegel, China Daily, Yomiuri Shimbun, DW, France 24, RT, The Hindu, El Pais, Haaretz, O Globo (brazil), Hindustan Times, The Times UK, Le Figaro, The Jerusalem Post).

The result here is the average of their outputs.

Updates

Since answers are unlinked, I can add more. please suggest anything you'd be interested in, as long as there is some kind of resolution criteria.

Resolutions

If you think there's doubt about interpretation, or you have found a "loophole", please contact me, either in comments or privately, before sinking a ton of mana into it. If you are right, I won't stop you from profiting; but I also hope to remove some resolution complexity by checking and clarifying meanings and intents first. Thanks for playing.

Contest

After this market is over, I will give away mana based on whoever has the highest "contest point" score. Score is determined by giving you one point for each of:

  • For every market above:

  • The direction you bought first was in the end the right direction

  • And the price you bought at was <80% (from your pov, YES or NO)

  • And you bought at least 1 mana worth. If you buy more the starting price must be within the limit range. The final price is irrelevant for this purpose.

So you can't wait til the outcome is known because the price will be too high (and it's too easy) for you. And once you bet, your original direction for that market is permanent. After that you can buy and sell as you like and it has no effect; once your direction is set its permanent. Note that if you buy in at say 90% you have no direction but if you sell at 90% (IE you're buying NO at 10%) that is equivalent to buying NO at 10% which would set your direction.

Example: there is a claim which is at 83% now and you've never bought it either direction. If you buy YES it doesn't count since that's too easy. If you buy NO you pay 17% so it counts as your direction in this claim. Now, if in the end the claim resolves NO, you win one point since you got it cheap and you were right. If it resolves YES you get no points. Make sense?

So as time goes by we can calculate the running "contest point" totals and in the end the top winner gets 2500, 2nd place gets 1000 and 3rd, 4th and 5th place gets 500 via managram.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ2,150 Answer #2dc05dbc3d69 YES
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]

this has a duplicate

bought Ṁ1,300 Answer #52e04af9aff1 YES
bought Ṁ400 Answer #862691a931e3 YES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karina_Milei

He is officially designated as General Secretary of the Presidency of the Argentine Nation

This should resolve as yes

sorry to be a nudnik @Ernie just wanted to tap you again on this one

@shankypanky oh no, thanks! I miss a lot now. The new trader bonuses being mixed with comments makes it hard to be sure I've seen everything. Fingers crossed for separation of those two streams with a way to make sure I've reviewed everything I want to see =)

Welcome bettors. Feel free to ask and clarify anything you need to know. If something has happened already, post links and I can resolve options early if needed.

reposted

Subsidized & boosted!

I added the concept of a market contest here. Please check it out in the description

meaning, he travels? or expatriates? 😅

@shankypanky physically crosses the border

reposted

Hey y'all this is a fun market, how about throwing in some bets?

Reward of 100 mana via managram if you bet on all sub markets at least 3m each

There are some parts of the border that are undefined (e.g. the Southern Patagonian Ice Field). Does it count if they get officially defined?

@BrunoParga ah this area.

Would it be possible to judge this way: "If the borders are defined but neither side views it as unexpected and neither side gained over what might be expected normally, then no change will be deemed to have occured. But if there is pressure or force involved, or if it is internationally believed that Argentina either gained or lost more than expected as part of the refinement of the border definition, then that would count as the borders changing".

i.e. if they just formalize the "effective borders" as they are now, it would be somewhat wrong to consider that a "change of border". I'm trying to retain that distinction.

@Ernie yeah, sounds good. It's something like "if the borders change an unexpected amount". It's not suuuuper well defined, but I think we'll know it when we see it.

An additional criterion we might consider is: does Argentina rule territory that was previously widely considered not to belong to them, or does someone else rule territory widely considered Argentinian as of 2023? Them ruling the Falklands I think would definitely count.

@BrunoParga hmm, from Argentina's pov they already claim the islands, right? So taking them over would not really change that. Although it definitely is worthy of an entry here.

@Ernie they do claim the islands, but I don't think they would say they control them. But yeah, a separate entry would work as well.