Well this market wasn’t very predictive…

@JimOtt I think the 75% chance prediction was reasonable. Oftentimes looking back at a prediction there are clear mistakes, but I am not aware of any here, so I think this is more of a case of just chance (25% of the time your 75% prediction should be wrong).

@jack What is the normal death rate of a 90+ year old woman. It’s higher than 75% is what I’m saying. Then take the fact she is Queen and give her slightly better odds. I dunno I just thought the market would have priced it higher initially. http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html

@JimOtt Your link says annual chance of death for 85+ year old woman is 14%. Standard UK life tables from ONS give a 96 year old woman 25% chance of death in that year, rising to 35% at 100 yo. I'd say this market was reasonably well calibrated to base rates.

Yeah, I also looked at the life expectancy tables and they matched up reasonably with the predictions I was seeing.

Always, in our hearts. Also, Charles' wife is technically queen consort, not queen - so Elizabeth is still the last proper queen.

;)

Why hasn't this been resolved yet?

@NicoDelon Semi serious answer. Elizabeth could rise from the dead and take over the UK with an army of ghouls.

Or the UK could collectively derp and declare a dead person Queen.

Very unlikely though.

I believe in the Queen to hang on for a few more months. (This is probably dumb, and I will probably lose money.)