Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex, appears on the balcony of Buckingham Palace at any time before January 1, 2027. An appearance is defined as Prince Harry being physically present on the balcony during a public event, with photographic or video evidence published by reputable media outlets. If no such appearance occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

Prince Harry has traditionally appeared on the Buckingham Palace balcony during significant royal events, such as Trooping the Colour. However, since stepping back from his role as a senior working royal in 2020, his participation in such events has been limited. Notably, during Queen Elizabeth II's Platinum Jubilee in 2022, only working members of the royal family were invited to join the balcony appearance, excluding Prince Harry and Meghan Markle. (bbc.co.uk)

In May 2023, during King Charles III's coronation, Prince Harry attended the ceremony but did not appear on the Buckingham Palace balcony, as the appearance was reserved for working royals. (people.com)

Considerations

• Royal Protocol: Current royal protocol reserves balcony appearances for working members of the royal family. Any change in this protocol could influence Prince Harry's potential appearances.

• Family Relations: Ongoing dynamics within the royal family, including efforts toward reconciliation or further estrangement, may impact Prince Harry's participation in future events.

• Event Significance: Major royal events or changes in the monarchy could present opportunities for Prince Harry to appear on the balcony, depending on invitations and his role within the family at that time.