1,000
3.00https://www.cnn.com/uk/live-news/uk-prime-minister-rishi-sunak-tuesday-intl-gbr/index.html "Rishi Sunak becomes UK prime minister"
@kolotom99 People just spamming. It's embarrassing to share this sometimes when someone cannot behave.
Boris Johnson dropped out: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/johnson-battling-win-support-fresh-pm-bid-2022-10-23/
@MP Is he actually likely to lose his seat? I was sceptical, so I thought I would ask the market!
https://manifold.markets/Nico/will-boris-johnson-lose-his-parliam
@NikhilWoodruff Unless there's a general election or someone resigns their seat for him, that won't work.
There is a live list of which MPs have declared for which candidates at https://conservativehome.com/2022/10/21/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-sunak-in-front-johnson-a-close-second-with-mordaunt-a-distant-third/
@MP No, they are much lower than the 29% this market is currently showing. As usual, free response DPM markets don't work well at correcting answers that are too high. See my binary market on Boris Johnson below which is at 13% instead.
@jack Out of interest, why do you think Johnson's chances are as low as ~13%? The punditry seems to say: if he is in the final two, he is highly likely to win the membership vote. Do you think it is <13% that he gets into the final two?
@Nico https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/next-prime-minister-odds-tracker-tory-leadership-contest/ was putting at it ~13% yesterday. Today it's shot up to 40%.
