Boris Johnson is in the running for Conservative leader again. But there is an ongoing Privileges Committee investigation into claims he misled parliament over lockdown parties in Downing Street. Should they find against him, possible sanctions include suspension from parliament, and even expulsion, triggering a by-election.

This markets resolves YES, if Boris Johnson LOSES such a by-election, or otherewise permanently resigns his seat in the House of Commons. If he is expelled from parliament, but wins the subsequent by-election, it resolves NO.