Let's trade on February: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/what-will-be-the-most-popular-wikip-938adc034b52

📢Resolves "YouTube"

Proof Of Resolution:

@SirCryptomind thank you

@itsTomekK Resolves Youtube

February is coming closer...

Do you think should 'youtube' be excluded from options?

@itsTomekK I guess it is too late already because people have bet there. But probably worth considering excluding it if it makes it both in January and February

@ScipioFabius yes, i meant future months. Let's see then!

Saltburn has been the top page per week for the last 3 weeks, at a considerable distance from Youtube:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Top_25_Report

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau That page for some reason doesn't have youtube whatsoever, indicating it is excluded. However, the resolution source may still include it in the monthly.

@ScipioFabius I think it is excluded because it is a “false positive”.

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau most likely, but the resolution source may or may not exclude it, so bet accordingly.

@ScipioFabius The market description says:

“In case of false positives (trying not to count them) or doubtful results from source, I reserve the right to resolve according to my judgement.”

I hope this doesn’t become a market on “Will the source count Youtube as a false positive even though it seems clear that it is”

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau YouTube has won in past months

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau @itsTomekK can you comment as creator?

@benshindel sure!

The best for this market is to use the resolution source directly - once their January stat is out. If it's excluded, then according to the description - Youtube (or others) would not count.

If in monthly stat Youtube is included... I would wait 3 days (after monthly stat release) before the resolution, in case they have a lag on false positives.

Is this fine, what do you think?

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau It appears that it is exactly so.

Who are these "Others" and why do they skyrocket over the last 7 days of January?

@Lion I would suggest not buying NO shares in "Other" because once somebody adds a new answer it automatically buys YES shares in all of the options that were present before (or converts the NO shares to YES? Im not sure).

@ScipioFabius I've been there, I've done that, I don't see a problem. I hold currently 355 NO-shares. If somebody adds an answer, I'll hold 355 YES-shares of every answer expect Others and the added answer. (Than I'll be able to sell them individually if I wish or hold them.) It's the same in the end, just looks a little bit messy in the ui.

@Lion I mean, why not just buy YES shares in the answers you actually think can make it? You're essentially taking a loss by buying shares in options you dont think will make it.

@ScipioFabius Because I think every suggested option can make it. I'll usually buy shares, if I think an option is overpriced or underpriced. I think right now the market is priced pretty well expect others. And it's easier and faster to buy one position no than multiple one yes. And I always can just add an option an sell yes-shares if I'll wish to do so.

@Lion Alright, that's fair enough.

Here's where the top 6 stand right now

@thepurplebull where did you get this?

@NeoPangloss Looks like he just scraped it off of the source page and made it himself. Looks like an excel graph to me?

@ScipioFabius @NeoPangloss Yes, the linked page lets you download all daily views data as .csv. Makes things pretty easy. I just compiled all the data so far this month in Excel, then a bit of filtering, processing, and concatenation gave me this graph.