https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/medialse/2023/01/18/2022-wasnt-the-year-of-cleopatra-so-why-was-she-the-most-viewed-page-on-wikipedia/

I found this article interesting. Also, unless Wikimedia changes their methodology (which is unlikely), Cleopatra will always be a false positive, as 98%+ of views come from mobile devices.

Apparently 'Cleopatra' is excluded from the source used for this market as a false positive. It would be #2 for 2023 otherwise.

it doesn't mean that it has to be excluded from annual top, as far as i understand that

@itsTomekK Wait, are you saying that you're going to be including false positives?

@Marnix If it's counted as a false positive it won't count. Tomek is just pointing out that if a wiki page is listed as false positive once, it doesn't mean it will be counted as a false positive forever. E.g. "Bible" was a false positive in the 2021 yearly ranking but not in the 2022 yearly ranking. So it's hard to say if Cleopatra will end up being counted as a false positive this year.

@Agh exactly! I am leaving judgement of false positives to the resolution source

Surprised Kamala Harris isn't trading higher given her alleged presidential odds

Can articles be added as an answer if they have not yet been created? Such as a hypothetical disaster or sudden event?

@thepurplebull Yes, but please ping me after such wiki page is created so I could change that answer to wiki title (if it's clear that both mean the same), since this market will resolve to actualy wiki titles

@itsTomekK btw Deadpool 3 changed to Deadpool and Wolverine, Deadpool 3 still directs there

Great Question! 👍

can you add gpt5?

@sponge sure, you can add it, looking at wiki titles it should be: "GPT-5"

PS Resolution source is based on this stat site, with updated daily and monthly data:

https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/topviews/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&date=last-year&excludes=

Made a variant of this!

Trump was near the top in ‘16 and ‘17 and ‘20, all years with significant elections (or election outcomes). He’s going to have a number of trials going on next year at the same time as his campaign is going, I think there’s a decent chance he could top next years list again.

Having "Other" as an option while also allowing new answers seems kind of weird.. Any options that are added now are basically taking from the pool of pages that 'Other' can represent.

@KableK Yes. That’s a feature not a bug.

@NicoDelon I will bet against other then, assuming whatever article it is will be popular enough for someone to add it to the list.

@KableK If you bet NO on other you will only recoup your investment if one of the already available options is picked. If you bet YES you’ll get shares on any new option ‘for free’. Unless you’re really confident no other possible option than those available could win, I don’t recommend betting NO.

@NicoDelon Oh I didn't know you can split bets out of 'Other' like that "for free". Also didn't know that if a new answer that is not split out of 'Other' yet wins it would make my bet against 'Other' not win. I am still pretty new to Manifold, thanks for the info.

I'm going to leave my bet as it is even though I understand it's not as good as I thought it was, just to see how it plays out and to better understand how the splitting works.

You might want to edit to 'Donald Trump' to preempt any confusion and controversy.

@NicoDelon good point, fixed!

https://wikimediafoundation.org/news/2023/12/05/announcing-wikipedias-most-popular-articles-of-2023/