What will be the most popular Wikipedia article in 2024?

@thepurplebull Yes, but please ping me after such wiki page is created so I could change that answer to wiki title (if it's clear that both mean the same), since this market will resolve to actualy wiki titles

@itsTomekK btw Deadpool 3 changed to Deadpool and Wolverine, Deadpool 3 still directs there

Great Question! 👍

bought Ṁ37 ChatGPT YES

can you add gpt5?

@sponge sure, you can add it, looking at wiki titles it should be: "GPT-5"

PS Resolution source is based on this stat site, with updated daily and monthly data:

https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/topviews/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&date=last-year&excludes=

Made a variant of this!

Donald Trump

Trump was near the top in ‘16 and ‘17 and ‘20, all years with significant elections (or election outcomes). He’s going to have a number of trials going on next year at the same time as his campaign is going, I think there’s a decent chance he could top next years list again.

Having "Other" as an option while also allowing new answers seems kind of weird.. Any options that are added now are basically taking from the pool of pages that 'Other' can represent.

@KableK Yes. That’s a feature not a bug.

bought Ṁ50 of Other NO

@NicoDelon I will bet against other then, assuming whatever article it is will be popular enough for someone to add it to the list.

@KableK If you bet NO on other you will only recoup your investment if one of the already available options is picked. If you bet YES you’ll get shares on any new option ‘for free’. Unless you’re really confident no other possible option than those available could win, I don’t recommend betting NO.

bought Ṁ42 of Other NO

@NicoDelon Oh I didn't know you can split bets out of 'Other' like that "for free". Also didn't know that if a new answer that is not split out of 'Other' yet wins it would make my bet against 'Other' not win. I am still pretty new to Manifold, thanks for the info.

I'm going to leave my bet as it is even though I understand it's not as good as I thought it was, just to see how it plays out and to better understand how the splitting works.