91
890
1.5k
resolved Feb 3
Resolved
NO

This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.


Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.

Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:


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Dec to Dec inflation 3.4% but if it is whole of 2022 to whole of 2023 that may be different.

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles what do you mean "whole of 2022 to whole of 2023"?

Like the weird method the World Bank stats use? I think they're taking the median of the 12 headline inflation numbers over the year, which I guess is pretty close to something like the percentage change in the average CPI over all of 2023 to the average CPI over all of 2022.

Very unlikely that's what Yglesias was going for, though, Dec to Dec CPI is the normal definition of full year inflation.

@chrisjbillington here is an example:
"The inflation rate in Germany is expected to be +3.7% in December 2023. The inflation rate is measured as the change in the consumer price index (CPI) compared with the same month a year earlier. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.1% on November 2023. The annual average inflation rate is expected to stand at +5.9% in 2023."
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Price-Index/_node.html

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles FWIW the median of US headline inflation rates in 2023 was 3.5% and the mean was 4.09%. So if it's median this can resolve NO regardless, and if there's any chance the mean is intended, this market should be priced a lot higher.

It's a weird measure not usually used in the US (it's like, smoothing twice - YoY to smooth over a year, and then averaging that number over a further year. Why not just calculate an annualised 2y rate if you want more smoothing? Very strange).

Definitely not what Yglesias meant, such that I'm not betting this market up from 0.8%.

Can we get clarity from Yglesias? Or can you just resolve this @itsTomekK? You have my word that regular YoY is what he meant, I will eat my hat if it wasnt.

Not ready for resolve; Data not available until January 11th 2024.

predicted YES

Interesting how this isn't moving much in response to new hotter than expected inflation prints

predicted YES

@IsarBhattacharjee like I don't think a big spike is super likely but it's definitely being underpriced in the market

predicted NO

Inflation was 3.69969812134443 instead of 3.69163539227122. I think the fair price is 14.030576749% instead of 14%.

bought Ṁ80 of YES

Why is this drifting down? In April the year over year CPI was at 5%, and the April increase was 0.4%, higher than a 4% annual rate. Meanwhile the fed is talking about pausing rate increases for bank stability (i.e. despite continued inflation). What's going to make it go down by the end of the year?

predicted NO

@ErickBall Year-to-date seasonally-adjusted inflation annualises to about 3.5%. What's going to make it go up?

@chrisjbillington Commodities and manufacturing, plus base effects turning into tailwinds

@chrisjbillington But I'm still not going to take the buy on this bc even tho inflation is set to re accelerate, unlikely to be doing so at the 38bps average monthly clip required for YoY to be 4% on Dec CPI

What is the resolution criteria? december CPI year over year change? Or November CPI year over year change since this resolves end of December when December numbers won't have released yet?

predicted NO

@wilsonkime Given it doesn't say Core, it's gotta be December 12 month headline CPI-U.