US Inflation over 5% 2023-2025

1kṀ5404

Dec 31

chance

ALL

Resolves as YES if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that annual inflation was over 5% from the start of 2023 to the end of 2025.

Inflation calculations will be based on BLS figures. If the methods for calculating CPI are altered or the data is generally agreed to be unreliable, the question will still use official BLS figures.

The way that this will be calculated is by taking the CPI at the end of 2025, dividing it by the CPI at the start of 2023, and then calculating the annualized inflation rate using that ratio. (Raise the ratio to the power of (1/2) since two years have elapsed, then subtract 1 from that figure, and multiply the difference by 100 to yield the annualized inflation rate.)

Economics

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the U.S. inflation rate exceed 5% at any point in 2025?

43% chance

How high will US inflation be in 2025?

4.1

Will the United States' inflation rate be above 3% in 2023, 2024, and 2025?

46% chance

Will US inflation be over 4% for the next 5 years?

3% chance

Will US inflation be >= 2% (annualized) over the next 5 years?

88% chance

What will be the US rate of inflation between December 2022 and December 2023?

Sort by:

So each month that is reported, must report over 5% y/y? In other words, this is not an average. If any month reports below 5% y/y it resolves a no?

predictedYES

@GaryGrenda No, that's not what it says. The annualized inflation rate over the whole time period has to be over 5%. I can write a clarification for how it will be calculated.