Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?

Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)

Will mechanistic interpretability have more academic impact than representation engineering by the end of 2025?

Will janus/@repligate meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Will this project in mechanistic interpretability make me happy by the end of 2024?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?