Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?
6
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3000
47%
chance

  • Update 2025-08-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that an increase in p(doom) of more than 5% will result in a YES resolution.

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Does increasing it by >5% count?

@NeelNanda yes

predictedNO

Has anyone else noticed these stupid markets with no resolution criteria where no one could know in principle if it happened, but there is also 100% guarantee no one is going to affect the probability of doom by that much?

It's not quite true that no one could know in principle, since counterfactuals have well-defined physical meanings.

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