By 2035, will mechanistic interpretability enable Nobel Prize-winning work?
3
100Ṁ402034
46%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2035, a Nobel Prize in any category is awarded for work that explicitly utilizes mechanistic interpretability techniques in artificial intelligence, or explicitly dependent on work that utilizes mechanistic interpretability techniques.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will mechanistic interpretability have more academic impact than representation engineering by the end of 2025?
72% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?
21% chance
Will interpretability be commonplace in physics papers relying on machine learning by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?
11% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?
13% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
31% chance
Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
60% chance
Will mechanistic/transformer interpretability [eg Neel Nanda] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
10% chance
Breakthrough in symbolic regression by the end of 2025?
36% chance
What percentage of mechanistic interpretability is solved for GPT-2?
35% chance