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Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
38% chance
When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?
Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
59% chance
Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
83% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
25% chance
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50% chance
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38% chance
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61% chance
Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)
35% chance
Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when: