What does Manifold think Democrats would do if they won the trifecta in 2024?
Mini
10
173
resolved Aug 30
Resolved
29%
Supreme Court packing (at least 2 justices impeached or at least 1 additional justice added)
Resolved
29%
at least twice as many asylum-seekers admitted in 2025 as in 2024
Resolved
29%
state laws restricting abortion will be overridden to a degree that NARAL celebrates publicly
Resolved
14%
Propose a bill granting Puerto Rico statehood which reaches at least 25% support
Resolved
NO
Senate "nuclear option": cloture by simple majority (outside of nominations)
Resolved
NO
at least 1,000,000 guns confiscated by the Federal government

By "the trifecta", I mean the Presidency and (caucus) majorities in the House and Senate.

I supplied some examples for those who fear Democratic tyranny, but please feel encouraged to add any policies you think are likely.

When the question closes, I will create a poll with all the options (down to whatever limit there is on polls) from this question and give it another week to run, then resolve based on the results of the poll to the greatest precision available. (E.g., if I can make each option pay off according to its poll percentage, I will.)

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Resolving to partial:

  • 2/7 ~= 29% for abortion, packing, asylum

  • 1/7 ~= 14% for Puerto Rico

  • NO for guns and nukes

Sorry it took me a while, but here is the followup poll to resolve this: https://manifold.markets/ijk1/what-would-democrats-would-do-if-th?r=aWprMQ

Supreme Court packing (at least 2 justices impeached or at least 1 additional justice added)

Rationale for these slightly weird criteria:

I think it's generally agreed that adding any justices, or impeaching and replacing a justice for political reasons, is an attempt at packing the court; but Clarence Thomas's open corruption means there's a strong non-political case for impeaching him, and replacing only one justice would not reverse the direction of the court, so impeaching him alone would not be enough.

Senate "nuclear option": cloture by simple majority (outside of nominations)

@MarioFSchlitzer this is not clear. Please be specific about a concrete policy or real-world outcome that can be bet on.

bought Ṁ10 Senate "nuclear opti... YES

I was just being silly, given the current situation, feel free to N/A if you want.

I'm looking for serious answers but I don't want to nuke the whole question right now. Can you please take a crack at replacing this with something that can be evaluated? If not, I'll take other suggestions in this thread for what to edit this to.

My own proposal: use the "nuclear option" (cloture by majority vote, on a topic other than a nomination confirmation)

To be clear, I agree it's very unlikely they will win anything at all; my motivation is primarily about translating the fears I hear from right-wingers into quantitative estimates.

(for those reading after the edit: the original option said "wake up", i.e., it was all a dream)