Which of these reddit alternatives will see the greatest growth in the 2 years following July 1st 2023?
Mini
8
220
2025
10%
Other
38%
Lemmy
9%
Kbin
3%
Lobsters
6%
Discord
3%
Tildes
4%
Tumblr
4%
Drama.net
24%
Rdrama.net

I'm sure there will be other flashpoints coming, say the shuttering of old.reddit.com and this market could be very useful for signalling consensus on where to move to, what to avoid, etc.

It's possible that reddit itself will see the greatest growth, but it is explicitly excluded from the options. I've been waiting for free responses to return to make this market; I don't know how much, if any, moderation of the free responses is possible. I'd like to limit this to alternatives which have some kind of subcommunities or which (accidentally or deliberately) look like reddit.

Here's the list I initially created for a multiple choice market:

  • Lemmy

  • Kbin

  • Lobsters

  • Discord

  • Tildes

  • Headcycle

Some more obscure options:

Even more alternatives: https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/yttdlc/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v8/

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This market could be calibrated a little better...

@Shai oops typo

FYI, I added Lobsters to the initial set of options, but I hadn't realized they don't have subcommunities (yet?), so it actually fails my initial soft requirements.

Is "greatest growth" based on absolute or relative numbers? A quick googling suggests Discord is currently at ~150 million users while the other options here are in the tens or hundreds of thousands. If a million people leave reddit with 900k going to Discord (giving Discord <1% growth) and 100k going to Lemmy (~100% growth), which one resolves as having the greatest growth?

@whenhaveiever I definitely don't want this to be a boring market where the largest whales are most likely to grow and the minnows...

Let's definitely go with a relative growth. I was mostly thinking of a qualitative result anyway. Either this reddit exodus peters out, or there becomes a clear winner (like the digg to reddit migration) or there's a broader field of thriving options. Discord "winning" would be a terrible outcome, IMO, and it's of course possible that the best alternative is yet to be developed...

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