What metric is most advantageous for Manifold Markets to track in order to monitor success of the platform?
23
Ṁ1.3kṀ12kresolved Apr 21
100%63%
Mana Sales
0.0%Other
0.0%
Volume
6%
Daily Active Users
0.0%
Number of trades
0.0%
Dev opinion
0.0%
User opinion
0.0%
Market cap
0.0%
Price of a particular market about Manifold success
0.0%
Predictive accuracy
30%
Extent to which mana flows into smarter hands
0.0%
Number of users that have resolved a traded market
0.0%
Total utils produced
0.0%
The answer with the lowest % approx 10 seconds before resolution time
0.1%
% of markets being resolved and being resolved correctly (optionally: weight by volume).
the biggest danger for Manifold are rug pulls and bad resolutions AND abandoned markets which are never resolved. Both need some handling if Manifold is going to scale (reputation tracking in some form at least).
0.0%
Success of the platform
0.1%
The number of interesting markets (definition in comment)
Whichever has the highest probability will win.
Apr 6, 10:05am: It'd be great to hear more about the mission & goals of the platform. My assumption is that the goal is to create a platform for those who excel in truth-finding to survive solely on their related skills and abilities. Like youtube but for seers.
Apr 6, 11:12am: If a whale tries to steal the market in the last day or two by moving the market in an unexpected direction I'll extend the deadline to give people time to react.
Apr 7, 1:55pm: From the seed round meme: "Our goal is to create the largest, most accessible, and most impactful forecasting platform by allowing users to create and participate in their own prediction markets."
Close date updated to 2022-04-20 11:59 pm
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There are two ways manifold is useful to people
1. it provides contracts (hedging, action markets)
2. it provides information
I'd say the 2nd is where most of the value lies. People are excited for prediction markets not mainly because they get to make esoteric contracts, they're excited to get better forecasts about the world. While mana sold is a better proxy for 1, I think this is a better proxy for 2
Like, we obviously need a lot of economic participation to produce the accuracy, but if all we're doing is providing accurate forecast to a small niche of people - that's pretty sad
I don't disagree with anything you've said here, @AngolaMaldives, just that I'm betting that mana sales is a better proxy metric for what you describe. For example, daily active users will tend to have random spikes when Manifold gets press mentions. Mana sales measures both serious users and how serious they are. I expect mana sales and DAU to correlate well, just with mana sales being less noisy.
(Also I think it's really important for Manifold to be sustainable as a business, and also for mana to be as money-like as possible. Mana sales helps with both of those.)
imo, DAU should *obviously* be the thing Manifold is attempting to maximise right now - they have a really cool, interesting premise but with (probably much) less than a thousand active users the site struggles to muster enough activity to remain consitently engaging, not to mention the the serious diminishing of the intended 'wisdom of crowds' effect when there aren't enough crowds to be wise. A potential influx of 'unserious' users given greater press hardly strikes me as a real problem either - they'll quickly hemmorage their $M to other users, then get bored and leave, leaving us with more users who are really interested in the idea and able to help make it a robust success.
An interesting market as at least $100 bet on an outcome, and $100 bet on a different outcome (the liquidity doesn't count). The same person betting both ways on CFMM is considered 'cancelled out' for the calculation for the portion that was refunded.
This definition means that markets where there is a 'fight' to arrive at a probability are counted.
For the metric it could be number of new interesting markets per month.
This will correlate with DAU increases if there is a culture of creating interesting markets. But if DAU is just bots this metric will be immune.
Seeing as how the platform is still so early I'm changing my opinion to DAU. More users will make the platform more interesting as we'll get more markets being made, more interactions between users, etc. I personally just want my friends to join the platform, not necessarily have them buy mana or win mana. I want to have FUN. And DAU will build the network effects that will cement manifold as THE social betting platform or whatever the pitch is. That can lead to mana sales or smart hands getting money further down the road.
The mana sales metric also could be per capita if you wanted to avoid whales throwing it off @EricJang
This is such a good metric: is the platform actually providing good information for people? And is its information getting better over time? A couple problems: as Gurken told me this doesn't measure the difficulty in questions; maybe weight the accuracy measure of each market by its volume as @M mentioned in #14? And: we'd want to make sure there are still lots of markets and people predicting so it's not perfect on its own but it does seem like a nice addition.
Good point, @Adam and @MartinRandall. I stand corrected on equating mana sales to Manifold revenue. Which just makes mana sales all the more palatable as the primary success metric, I guess.
PS: I think the charity feature is more "intended" than "promised" but I'm curious to hear if you know something I don't! I think the Manifolders should do whatever makes mana most money-like. The charity option is one great option for that but there may be better ones.
re Isaac: basically, if someone's buying M$, I think they're doing it for one of a couple reasons:
1) They want to use it to buy information or entertainment on Manifold
2) They want to signal that Manifold is important and valuable to them and financially support Manifold.
both of those are really useful signals to watch out for, and good things to optimize for.
If "success" means "financial success" then this is nearly a tautology. But if it means "ability to influence the world", I don't get why this would be a good metric at all. We'd want to measure popularity, and that doesn't need to correlate with profit at all. The more users can participate for free, the more users there will be.
This is almost utterly useless as a metric.
You can be trying to estimate this and track how much amount went to rug pulls or gambling markets but does not appear to be a good metric.
(BTW, this would work better as % resolving by usefulness - there are some ideas deserving say 10% selection, but not really worth posting)
I disagree totally. Success is about people for MM. For a crypto thing making money in a cynical way, yes $1bn from elon musk > $10m from 10000 eager users, but MM is about community. If there were 5 super whales here and no one else, it would be worth a lot less in my opinion. Especially as the money is fake and the units arbitrarily!
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