1 = today (March 6th)
10 = March 15th or later
Creation is currently disabled, but will be lifted soon! I'm looking for feedback on the minimum viable numeric market (this one).
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ949 | |
| 2 | Ṁ820 | |
| 3 | Ṁ522 | |
| 4 | Ṁ259 | |
| 5 | Ṁ207 |
Edit 2: When I made this market a few different things were broken with it, so don't expect trades/profit/etc. to act/add up right.
Edit 1: Just an fyi I recently changed the bucket widths but the index of the buckets is the same as the day, (as listed previously) you can ignore the decimal ranges. I plan to have them open tomorrow! (Day 6, 5.5-6.4)
In the current form, I think numeric markets are seriously lacking. As an advanced user, I will always be looking at the actual distribution of buckets rather than the predicted number before making any bet. I will also probably be adjusting significantly so that I can buy however much I want from every bucket. That's because my belief is likely to not be distributed in the same way as the market currently is. Even if it is higher, for example, the exact distribution markets. However, the current system is designed to buy the market distribution within higher/lower rather than your own belief. It also nudges towards confidence in the estimate, since the implementation is assymetric - there is a button that tightens the distribution around the current median, but there is no button that does the opposite, and widens the predicted distribution.
What I'm worried about is actually less about myself and more about less advanced users. I don't expect everyone to use it in the same way I do. But if a bunch of newer users bet in a way they didn't expect, or that is not optimal, I really wouldn't want to take their mana just because the market design was confusing.
What I would really like to see is a Metaculus-like UI which allows you to create your own belief curve, although in this case it would be discretized into bins, and then automatically bets in a strategy that fits that. At the minimum, I think we should be able to see the underlying histogram for the market.
This is amazing. Some thoughts:
Higher and lower here both bet on the most likely bucket, which means they are not that useful.
I think I would always show the two knobs for people to choose the range they want to bet on, even in higher or lower.
I keep clicking in to see the distribution across buckets. Seems more informative than even the expected value graph over time? It's almost like you shouldn't bet unless you understand the buckets, so we should just show them more prominently?
Recording the decimal precision seems pretty important for making this less confusing. Like if this question resolves to a whole number, we could label the buckets clearer
I think higher/lower don't really work because betting a lot on one doesn't do what you'd expect. If I bet a lot on higher, you would think I would get increasingly more shares in higher buckets. But I just get equal shares in any bucket >= to the mean.
Here's what I'd do:
Slim down the expected value chart to one quarter its height.
Show the buckets chart big below it always
Show a range slider with two knobs always
Have one "Bet" button below the range slider which opens the bet panel and buys shares in the buckets within the selected range
Nice feature :)
@traders I just enabled numeric market creation, if I don't disable it due to something unforeseen I'll resolve this to the 5.5-6.4 bucket. You can set the number of buckets you want up to 10. I'd appreciate any feedback you have!
Edit 2: When I made this market a few different things were broken with it, so don't expect trades/profit/etc. to act/add up right.
Edit 1: Just an fyi I recently changed the bucket widths but the index of the buckets is the same as the day, (as listed previously) you can ignore the decimal ranges. I plan to have them open tomorrow! (Day 6, 5.5-6.4)
@saulmunn implementing stealth features as a low-key humblebrag in markets about delivering other features. Well done, Manifold team
@MattCWilson Pinned comments have actually been a feature for a while (February 1). Mods can pin comments on any market and market creators can pin comments on their own market.