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MANIFOLD
2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets
675
Ṁ50kṀ660k
Oct 31
57%
FIFA’s official total revenue for the 2023-2026 cycle exceed $16.billion
27%
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

20 var decisions overturned: only actual VAR interference count, automated offside checks are not included

Most questions should be clear from official stats pages. I reserve the right to make calls on ambiguous cases

  • Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 15+ minutes of stoppage time refers to a single match, not aggregate across the tournament.

  • Update 2026-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Goals by default exclude penalty shoot-out goals unless otherwise specified.

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@Predictor if it's happened already 🤷‍♂️ resolve then?

bought Ṁ410 YES

@Predictor @Mochi Garcia (BEL)

@CryptoNeoLiberalist I believe this resolution is incorrect. There were visible Palestinian flags in several games.

@Lemming could you point me to those games? My understanding is that it only happened after games not during games.

@Mochi

This link contains a photo from the Iran - NZ match.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/world-cup-2026-palestine-flags-become-target-us-based-games

I also recall it from Egypt’s matches.

You can find more evidence on social media.

@Mochi may i also add - the crackdown on Palestinian flags seems to have occurred only in US matches specifically.

@Lemming the question specifies the flag be “on the field”, the link you included showed audience waving them in the stands. Also I recall the Egypt game the Palestine flag only was shown after the match. This case was discussed before /Mochi/2026-fifa-world-cup-prop-bets

@Lemming seems unfair to give me 1 star over this. It’s difficult as is to manage thousands of questions in this market and I am trying to resolve everything correctly according to whoever created their questions.

@CryptoNeoLiberalist personally I thought there were some things making this final historic. red card, 0 shots during regular time from Argentina, Messi last world match (likely), Barca boys vs definition of Barca. Market seems to price it as a NO. @CryptoNeoLiberalist Up to you to decide if it was historical or not.

@Mochi what else maybe? South American vs. European Champions (Finalissima had been cancelled due to war). Halftime show, biggest tourney ever. Most of it was known before kickoff already. Some superstition was involved: Argentina president did not travel and Cucurella digging a lucky charme (like in EURO I think). Fighting players or almost when the game finished, red card mentioned already and we had more during the fighting. The match was boring (also mentioned of course), no shots up to dying seconds, record low ARG xG

@Mochi I don’t think the red cards are in any way historic. But 0 shots and the halftime show, yes, that was pretty historic.

@PetrKadlec @Mochi the fighting was bigger than I initially thought. Molina and Paredes facing a monthly ban or penalties as well deputy head coach. Did we had a red cards prop ;) but it was after final whistle

sold Ṁ154 NO

@Mochi I am selling my position with the big loss so Ronaldo haters are not saying it is the rigged one! I’ll It was not a historical final. Recency bias is in the full swinging but after the next 8 years nobody will be recalling this final.

@CryptoNeoLiberalist I agree with you. Of course it's going to be an historical game, it's a wc final! But was it an historical wc final?

I still feel like the last historical final was 2006, and the one before that was probably 1986 the hand of god final.

Maybe I'm too strict in the definition of historical, but I feel that all the things you mentioned are not enough to make it truly rememberable

@LoZioPhi 2022 drama was historic for me. Best final to watch

@CryptoNeoLiberalist @Mochi Finally we should resolve to NO. There was still room for it to happen but it didn't

@TheAllMemeingEye @Mochi No banner anymore after the semi final. We just had visible flags and celebtrations among Spanish team after the final (NO banner and AFTER)

@UniversalFC @Mochi Houston Fan Festival reported some

@CryptoNeoLiberalist @Mochi I am betting NO here. The only statements I have seen are from commentators or pundits regarding goal keepers. Either by defending a goal kepper after a probably mistake or interpreting goal keeper facial expression after conceding. Both should not qualify as no player stated that he blamed the ball for losing

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Mochi I think this should resolve NO. The game ended at minute 124:59 and the goal was scored at minute 105:36 so not in the final 15 minutes.

Usually in the betting world, the final 15 minutes do not count extra time but rather the final 15 minutes of regular time. So by that logic should still resolve NO

@LoZioPhi @Mochi Indeed. And applying the last 15 mins in a football betting context again for ET would mean you get 2 chances. Resolving Yes would improvising a lot

here would be a dilemma. NED-MOR 1-1 scored 90'. No goals in ET

bought Ṁ184 NO

@CryptoNeoLiberalist Honestly, most forgettable and boring final in recent time.

bought Ṁ200 YES