20 var decisions overturned: only actual VAR interference count, automated offside checks are not included Most questions should be clear from official stats pages. I reserve the right to make calls on ambiguous cases Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 15+ minutes of stoppage time refers to a single match, not aggregate across the tournament. Update 2026-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Goals by default exclude penalty shoot-out goals unless otherwise specified.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, English fans acting unruly before, during or after Argentina match , followed by Ball hits the woodwork in semi final match and Anything occurring to make it historical final are most likely. See the market for live updates (606 traders, as of Jul 15, 2026).

2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets

MANIFOLD

2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets

606

Ṁ44kṀ460k

Jul 19

19%

Two different players with the same jersey number score in the final

77%

Both England and Argentina score a goal in the semifinal

21%

The market creator deems the result of the final to have been swayed by bias from the referee

79%

English fans acting unruly before, during or after Argentina match

78%

Anything occurring to make it historical final

79%

Ball hits the woodwork in semi final match

53%

Substitute scores in semi finals

31%

Otamendi shown card in semi final

55%

Over 4.5 goals in semi finals

55%

Over 17.5 corners in semi finals

78%

match

99%

Mitch McConnell alive for entire final match?

15%

Strait of Hormuz open at start of final match?

28%

Bellingham gets yellow card (SF)

52%

Harry Kane scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)

10%

Yellow card given for simulation (SF)

33%

Match is won in extra-time (SF)

50%

Team wins by exactly 1 goal (SF)

50%

Goal scored from a header (SF)

40%

Shirtless player on field during match (SF)

20 var decisions overturned: only actual VAR interference count, automated offside checks are not included

Most questions should be clear from official stats pages. I reserve the right to make calls on ambiguous cases

Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 15+ minutes of stoppage time refers to a single match, not aggregate across the tournament.