20 var decisions overturned: only actual VAR interference count, automated offside checks are not included Most questions should be clear from official stats pages. I reserve the right to make calls on ambiguous cases Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 15+ minutes of stoppage time refers to a single match, not aggregate across the tournament. Update 2026-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Goals by default exclude penalty shoot-out goals unless otherwise specified.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Another match day ending in all draws (regular time), followed by Freddy attends the final match and gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury are most likely. See the market for live updates (303 traders, as of Jun 16, 2026).

2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets

MANIFOLD

2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets

303

Ṁ26kṀ110k

Jul 19

82%

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

13%

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

42%

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

66%

Freddy attends the final match

45%

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

22%

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Players / members of team attempt to defect

14%

Another match with 3+ red cards

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

20%

Winning team has a foreign manager

90%

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

94%

Players cleat falls off their foot

Player suffers cardiac arrest

65%

Player tears their ACL

39%

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

95%

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

84%

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

22%

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

20 var decisions overturned: only actual VAR interference count, automated offside checks are not included

Most questions should be clear from official stats pages. I reserve the right to make calls on ambiguous cases

Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 15+ minutes of stoppage time refers to a single match, not aggregate across the tournament.

Update 2026-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Goals by default exclude penalty shoot-out goals unless otherwise specified.

Market context

MS Community: FIFA World Cup 2026

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@UniversalFC @Mochi

Tunisia HC gone after first game

bought Ṁ100 YES

@CryptoNeoLiberalist Yes

bought Ṁ457 YES

@256 @Mochi
USA 4-1 Paraguay LIVE: Hosts open their World Cup campaign in impressive style

USA 1 yellow card Paraguay 5 yellows

@UniversalFC covid style masks are explicitly forbidden?

Red cards for mouth-covering approved ahead of World Cup

Players who cover their mouths when confronting an opponent will be sent off at this summer's World Cup.

bought Ṁ1 YES

@Mochi which team? speculation very much allowed

@AlanTennant any 2026 World Cup match with 15+ cards counts. Ex. Argentina vs Netherlands 2022 match had 15 cards given to players

@Mochi In the red goal, it's Argentena, in the blue goal it's the Netherlands … 3, 2, 1, fight!

@CryptoNeoLiberalist @Mochi
Can resolve no Canada drew 1-1 with Bosnia-Herzegovina

@CryptoNeoLiberalist @Mochi
Fabinho, a Brazilian bleeding from mouth was seen and left pitch for a minute or two

Google Search
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/39404605/fabinho-bloodied-world-cup-opener/

Fabinho's face covered in blood as he's forced off in Brazil World Cup opener

FABINHO'S face was left covered in blood during Brazil's World Cup opener against Morocco. The former Liverpool midfielder came on for Casemiro...

@CryptoNeoLiberalist needs to resolve yes

@Mochi

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Mochi This should resolve yes for the US - Paraguay game. Watching the replay, it seems that they didn't do a post-goal kickoff before the ref whistled for end of game.

bought Ṁ20 NO

Haaland does this over 15 times

sold Ṁ0 NO

@UniversalFC

@Predictor I got you

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Mochi, there's lots of questions about "goals". By default, do these include goals in penalty shoot-outs, or no? (Or do we need to ask for each one?

bought Ṁ511 YES

@DanielTilkin by default, non penalty shoot-out goals

Match suspended due to thunderstorms

@TheWabiSabi Rd of 32 + Rd of 16 or with even 3 more draws on the way?

That’s all fine and good but get a load of this 👇

/CombatWombat/will-i-resolve-this-as-yes-or-no

reposted

This is the best 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction market around. I wish I had made it. I feel like nothing captures the magic of a month long tournament better than a solid selection of prop bets, many serious, some silly. Anything can happen and I can’t wait!