Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters) 

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged 

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Please feel free to add your own prop bets to the market.  Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.

This is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.

I will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion.  I tend to pay attention to international news.

All questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have "by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027" as part of their resolution criteria. 

I will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.

To assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.

I will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to.  If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)