World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

Question

I will not bet on this market.

Please feel free to add your own prop bets to the market.  Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.

This is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.

I will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion.  I tend to pay attention to international news.

All questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have "by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027" as part of their resolution criteria.

I will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.

To assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.

I will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to.  If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve to YES only if Jordan becomes a signatory of the specific treaty known as the 'Abraham Accords'. Jordan is not currently a signatory.

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about whether a suicide linked to a chatbot would count for a hypothetical prop bet, the creator specified their resolution criteria:

There must be a direct correlation between the AI's actions and the death.

The AI must be behaving like a rogue AI (maliciously, unpredictably, or contrary to its programming). An AI acting as it was designed would not meet this bar.

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the prop bet concerning a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, the creator has specified the resolution criteria:

This will resolve to YES if the current ceasefire lasts for 7 days.

Market Start Date

Update 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market covers conflicts from June 25, 2025 through the end of 2027.

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

The creator initially planned to resolve this to NO because Yahya Sinwar is dead and posthumous trials are extremely rare (last known example being Nuremberg Trials)

However, the creator has agreed that if a posthumous prosecution is initiated, the market can be re-resolved by moderators

This means the market may initially resolve NO but could be changed to YES later if posthumous proceedings occur

Humans will extinct

Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "Humans will extinct" answer will NOT be resolved N/A. The creator has been convinced that this question has value and is resolvable as worded, and will keep it open on the market.

Formal declaration of War

Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For any answer involving a formal declaration of war by the United States:

A statement by Donald Trump (or any President) declaring war does NOT meet the criteria

Must be done through Congress as a legislative declaration of war

"Formally" on this market means done through official channels per the pertinent country's laws

Iran loses territory

Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve based on internationally recognized border changes. Temporary occupations or withdrawals that do not result in formally recognized changes to Iran's borders would not count.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country, followed by North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test and A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed are most likely. See the market for live updates (197 traders, as of Sep 1, 2026).