Is there a grandmaster on Manifold?

1kṀ819

2026

73%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if I see definitive proof that one of you here on Manifold is a chess grandmaster. Will stay open until end of 2025 or until a grandmaster joins Manifold, whichever comes first.

It cannot be the friend or relative of a Manifold user, and if you are (or if someone you suspect is) an anonymous user, I'll need something that definitively proves that the holder of the account is a grandmaster.

I will not bet in this market.

Manifold Users

Chess

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Is Magnus Carlsen on Manifold?

5% chance

Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll)

84% chance

Is Manifold too easy?

41% chance

Who should run Manifold?

POLL

Are you on Manifold's Discord?

POLL

How can Manifold improve?

Ṁ3,446 bounty

How dramatic is Manifold?

Sort by:

Marshall PolarisboughtṀ200YES

@mqp 🤔

Inspired market: https://manifold.markets/Toby96/is-magnus-carlsen-on-manifold

Is Magnus Carlsen on Manifold?

50% chance. Resolves YES if I see definitive proof that one of you here on Manifold is Magnus Carlsen (the Chess world champion). Will stay open until end of 2025 or until Magnus Carlsen joins Manifold. I'll need something that definitively proves that the holder of the account is an international master. I will not bet in this market.

Is it that the GM must only have an account or do they have to be actively trading on markets?

@sarius Hmm, let’s say they have to have taken at least one action on the site (bet, comment, market creation, etc)

Actually gonna edit the description to 2025 since it looks like only 1 person holds position currently and it's NO so this would only help them. I think 2030 is too far a time horizon and it's quite likely that a user in the next 8 years or so would be able to recruit a GM to make an account. I could probably do it if I put my mind to it.

No way there is right now, there's more billionaires on earth than grandmasters. Maybe if Manifold grows enough, though.

@Joshua true but I'd bet the user base of Manifold skews heavily towards chess players and ppl who know other chess players. There's at least 1 user on this site that I suspect could recruit a GM to join.