Will EITHER US AI regulation or AI misuse (by user) cause significant crash/decline in a tech (AI) stock price in 2024? | Manifold

Will EITHER US AI regulation or AI misuse (by user) cause significant crash/decline in a tech (AI) stock price in 2024?

8

190Ṁ773

Jan 2

7%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Let's define a significant decline as -25+% in the span of two weeks, for any one of the following NVDA, GOOG, MSFT, AMD, AMZN, TSLA, ADBE, AAPL (and others within reason) reasonably linked to regulation or user misuse. Includes GPU export/manufacturing restrictions. Please correct with reasonable fixes to this question.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

Does "misuse" include accidents/alignment failures like the ones AI safety ppl are worried about?

@MilfordHammerschmidt Ah, good point. In misuse here, I would include "model assistance for cyberattacks and chem/bio/radiological/nuclear threats" but not a misaligned "persuasive model" or "autonomous model" (language ~from openai preparedness framework). What would accidents mean--or anything else I'm still missing?

People are also trading

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

Will some U.S. investment bankers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?

Will any large company leave the United States because of AI regulations? (2025)

Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?

Will any of the (in)famous AI markets resolve in favour of AI hype?

Will some U.S. accountants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will over-reliance on AI predictions lead to the next major stock market crash?

Related questions

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

Will some U.S. investment bankers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?

Will any large company leave the United States because of AI regulations? (2025)

Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?

Will any of the (in)famous AI markets resolve in favour of AI hype?

Will some U.S. accountants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will over-reliance on AI predictions lead to the next major stock market crash?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy