This market resolves based on what happens if I put the results of the Czech EU elections in this simulator. I will be experimentally increasing and decreasing the number of votes for STAN and Pirates (i.e. simulating what would happen if more or less voters turned up for those parties) The question will resolve YES if I need to change less votes to change the amount of mandates won by Pirates, compared to the votes for STAN.

Bonus context:

The simulator distributes seats according to the system that Czechia uses for European elections (D'Hondt - yes, even after the recent reform).

I noticed that two parties I consider voting - STAN and Pirates aspire to 2-3 seats and that I'm unable to distinguish whether the third candidate from either party better fits my worldview (Both parties probably get some votes whether I vote for them or not. Therefore, I think about the extra (counterfactual) value my vote could add).

However, I noticed that in my simulations, both STAN and Pirates would likely get 2 seats, if they reach any result between 7-10 percent. So a 1% difference in the vote will have a big impact if it swings the party from 6 to 7% or from 10 to 11%. In both cases, such a difference would take one seat away from SPD.