2024 Czech EU elections: Will voting for Pirates be more influential than voting for STAN?
Jun 7

This market resolves based on what happens if I put the results of the Czech EU elections in this simulator. I will be experimentally increasing and decreasing the number of votes for STAN and Pirates (i.e. simulating what would happen if more or less voters turned up for those parties) The question will resolve YES if I need to change less votes to change the amount of mandates won by Pirates, compared to the votes for STAN.

Bonus context:

The simulator distributes seats according to the system that Czechia uses for European elections (D'Hondt - yes, even after the recent reform).

I noticed that two parties I consider voting - STAN and Pirates aspire to 2-3 seats and that I'm unable to distinguish whether the third candidate from either party better fits my worldview (Both parties probably get some votes whether I vote for them or not. Therefore, I think about the extra (counterfactual) value my vote could add).

However, I noticed that in my simulations, both STAN and Pirates would likely get 2 seats, if they reach any result between 7-10 percent. So a 1% difference in the vote will have a big impact if it swings the party from 6 to 7% or from 10 to 11%. In both cases, such a difference would take one seat away from SPD.

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Btw 9,9 % could be sufficient for a 3rd mandate and 12,5 % may not be - the determining condition is whether the given party gets more votes than SPD

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LOVE this market and look forward to hearing what the results look like!

The amount of effort you're spending on this is probably not worth it, given it's one vote in a PR election maybe affecting 1 out of 720 seats for a Parliament that's somewhat less than a national one.

@BrunoParga Yeah... I mostly do it for fun but agree I overdid this one. My judgement will probably influence a few people but yeah, even 100 votes is very unlikely to influence anything.

@hominidan Although I think I saved myself some time I'd otherwise spent obsessing over who to vote :)

@hominidan I don't mean this as criticism, this is exactly the kind of thing I might do myself. I'm just pointing out the math, here:

  • in a two-party system, there's usually one party that's clearly better than the other one; but in your case, since you have tons of options and are in doubt between these two, it's likely that even if you knew for sure which one is the better, it wouldn't be better by a lot.

  • You don't know for sure yet which one is better, so there is a chance (which you hope to minimize) that you will decide and influence people in the wrong direction.

These are factors that make it quite possible that the benefit of doing this analysis doesn't outweigh the cost.

But then again, if you would obsess anyway, then by all means share your obsession here, where other election junkies might also spend more time and effort they can actually afford in refining the obsessing process!

@BrunoParga >You don't know for sure yet which one is better
That's why I plan to decide based upon this market - i.e. I will do my best to avoid spilling votes from one to the other party and instead, do the move most likely to take a seat from the far right

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