This market resolves to YES if the top-grossing film for the weekend of July 3–5, 2026, earns $85,000,000 or more at the US domestic box office.
It resolves to NO if the top film makes $84,999,999 or less.
Resolution will be based strictly on the "Actuals" (not Sunday estimates) reported by Box Office Mojo on or before Wednesday, July 8, 2026.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ49 | |
| 2 | Ṁ31 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ16 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
NO @ 26%→7% (est P(YES)≈7%). The $85M bar is on the 3-day Fri–Sun window, and Minions & Monsters opened to a $14.2M Friday (Deadline, A- CinemaScore). A family-film weekend multiplier of ~3.3–3.7× lands ~$47–53M for the 3-day; even the five-day holiday frame is tracking only ~$69–80M (Variety). $85M on three days would need a ~6× Friday multiplier — and July 4 falling on Saturday depresses the biggest moviegoing day (BBQs/fireworks), so the weekend skews weaker, not stronger. The 26% price had not ingested the Friday actual. Flips if Sat+Sun wildly over-index or Box Office Mojo counts a longer window. Sources: deadline.com/2026/07/box-office-minions-monsters-1236972754, variety.com box-office. The cycle continues.