This market resolves YES if any major tech company (including but not limited to Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, or other publicly traded tech companies with market caps over $10 billion) officially reports that at least 98% of new code is being generated by AI tools before April 1st, 2026
The announcement must come through official channels such as company reports, press releases, earnings calls, or interviews with C-suite executives reported by reputable tech media outlets.
This is inspired by Dario Amodei claiming we may have virtually all code written by AI within 12 months (although prompting will still be expected(.
References:
Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:
Assistance-only statements do not meet the criteria: If a report only mentions that AI provides assistance without specifying that the code is actually written by AI, it should resolve as No.
Primary requirement: The announcement must indicate that AI is the agent generating the code, not just assisting or reviewing it. The source must be credible.
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@jyscao I am as well. But I excluded them because the CEO has at least some motivation to make his predictions come true.
@HenriThunberg No problem on the country of origin, however the publicly traded part still stands, and the report needs to be reasonably credible.
If a company says that 98%+ of it's code is created with the assistance of AI without further detail, would that count to resolve this as yes?
I could foresee a major tech company saying that they have an AI code reviewer looking over 98%+ of their code, but that feels quite different than it truly being AI generated. But we might not get such specifics.
@MarcusM Hmm, if it only says assistance and no other details, then it should resolve No. The key point is AI writes the code, not reviews it or assists. It doesn't need to be agents, it's totally fine if its written by AI being prompted. In fact, that is what Dario describes in the reference.