What will Manifold's total mana purchases be in the month after the pivot is implemented and cash payouts enabled?
$5k or more
$10k or more
$15k or more
$20k or more
$35k or more
$50k or more
$100k or more

Manifold has announced their "Pivot", which is their intention to transform the website into a website with real cash prizes and real money betting: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393

What will Manifold's total revenue from mana purchases be for the 30 days following the day that cash payouts are enabled?

Mana sales stats: https://manifold.markets/stats. For reference, last 30 day mana sold was $6,888 on April 22.

Resolves N/A if cash payouts do not occur by May 2025 or if Manifold clearly states there is no chance of cash payouts occurring ever.

The day the pivot/cash payouts is enabled is included.

If multiple purchasable currencies, will resolve to total $ sales from all currencies.

If mana purchases are halted, each day will still count.

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So "pivot fully implemented" is based on the first opportuntiy for cash withdrawal, not the implementation of spice, right? (because most people are using may 15th as the planned "pivot launched" date but that's quite far from cash payouts)

@Ziddletwix cash payout date - because i and i'd imagine others are waiting for this before buying lots of mana

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