Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ39 | |
| 2 | Ṁ9 |
Moves by average probability:
0.727439 Rc4
0.072269 Re4
0.048694 Ra4
0.004468 d3
0.004442 Qxc6
0.004416 Rg6
0.004391 Rh4
0.004365 Rb4
pick a number between 1 and 999999960 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-373391558] Rc4, Re4
[373391559-623882205] Rc4, Ra4
[623882206-775890484] Rc4, Re4, Ra4
[775890485-798702057] Rc4, d3
[798702058-821381292] Rc4, Qxc6
[821381293-843928191] Rc4, Rg6
[843928192-866342755] Rc4, Rh4
[866342756-888624986] Rc4, Rb4
[888624987-900652764] Rc4, Re4, d3
[900652764-999999960] other
Hash of the complete table:
c42c2cfe92d68191cbd73ce97143dce854bd02e092a41da30e4737b849972378
@jack Best of these, others aren’t bad just no clear purpose. This keeps the pressure on the weakness created 5 moves ago. Almost equal in material now, only our bishop stuck home doing nothing, so we’ll attend to that promptly, depending on black’s reply.