Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 14. Re4, what is the score after move 15?
2
Ṁ90Ṁ38
resolved Apr 8
Resolved as
67%

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5

The other candidate move is 14. Rc4.

The conditional market for the other move is here:



If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 15. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 15 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 15.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ1
2Ṁ1
Sort by:

Score: Average probability: 0.673522


resolves to 67%

Re4: Average probability: 0.649311

Rc4: Average probability: 0.644402


Re4 wins.