[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 13: What will white play?

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resolved Apr 2

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What will white (Manifold) play in move 13?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4

market for previous move:

For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.

The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

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9 Comments

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https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1-0f55c05fea85 conditional market for the winning move

Umm ok... Guess we play Rxg4 then...

@harfe how will you resolve /harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1-e23228988e70 ?

@deagol I just read the rules and I wrote and I think I will create a single "conditional" market.

@harfe ok except I would not use the same conditional wording “if we play 13. Rxg4” but state directly “we’re playing Rg4, what’s the score after…?”

I decided to resolve it now. But I will only play the move in lichess after the conditional market closes.

answered

Rxg4

The pawn was poisoned, black’s queen was not a real defender of their bishop since she leaves the c6 pawn hanging, white queen takes it with check, forking the rook which falls. After all that, white recovered the piece but the position is still very tricky and rather uncomfortable.

To stay in the lead black must follow that by forcing a queen trade through a similar tricky move: after white queen takes rook on a8, Qg1+ followed by Qxf2+, then Bc5+, and finally Rxa8, ending a pawn ahead and a better position. But probably SF3 misses it.