[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we resign in move 6, what is the score after move 7?
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we resign in move 6, what is the score after move 7?
10
210Ṁ1645
resolved Mar 18
Resolved
N/A

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1.e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5

The other candidate moves are 6. Bd3 and 6.Qe2.

The conditional markets for the other moves are here:



If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other markets, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 7. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 7 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 6.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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Bd3: Average probability: 0.655204
Qe2: Average probability: 0.613907
Resign1: Average probability: 0.077202

Bd3 wins.

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