What will white (Manifold) play in move 5?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4
Previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" are legal moves.
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000
3.00Moves by average probability:
0.957511 Nxe4
0.020262 O-O
0.015795 Bxf7+
0.000833 Resign1
0.000830 Resign2
0.000827 Resign3
0.000418 Qe2
0.000000 Ke7 (removed)
0.000000 Qe7 (removed)
pick a number between 1 and 999999969 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-389705709] Nxe4, O-O
[389705710-693447748] Nxe4, Bxf7+
[693447749-891852706] Nxe4, O-O, Bxf7+
[891852707-907869927] Nxe4, Resign1
[907869928-923821359] Nxe4, Resign2
[923821360-939707227] Nxe4, Resign3
[939707228-948340913] Nxe4, O-O, Resign1
[948340913-999999969] other
Hash of the complete table:
5281669f329a2392a2162ed82179f750a8d45b86c0da1c532ed34f56ac53095f