[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 5: What will white play?
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 5: What will white play?
10
760Ṁ2344
resolved Mar 16
100%97%
Nxe4
0.3%Other
1.6%
O-O
1.2%
Bxf7+
0.1%
Resign1
0.1%
Resign2
0.1%
Resign3
0.0%
Ke7
0.0%
Qe7
0.0%
Qe2

What will white (Manifold) play in move 5?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4

Previous move:


For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.

The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" are legal moves.

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

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2y

https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-5 for Nxe4
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-5-2d8c8d6acc42 for O-O

2y

@harfe your random number is: 233566533

Salt: xp5P0eFpBtiQgdazgv6d, round: 2782066 (signature afd00c131aea687ca511ee2586351db12eb963a31b33d6998a4b5c834be470f7bc7c96d008a014a881334d6debb7d91d0e8295e8c97ddc92bd86f3c1de767434b077494be26d6267a9a928121a9d4d6df7d31a37388cceed433998fd4ac3df94)

2y

@FairlyRandom Nxe4 and O-O it is, then

2y

@FairlyRandom 999999969

2y

@harfe you asked for a random integer between 1 and 999999969, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2782064 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2782066, salt: xp5P0eFpBtiQgdazgv6d.

2y

Moves by average probability:

0.957511 Nxe4

0.020262 O-O

0.015795 Bxf7+

0.000833 Resign1

0.000830 Resign2

0.000827 Resign3

0.000418 Qe2

0.000000 Ke7 (removed)

0.000000 Qe7 (removed)

pick a number between 1 and 999999969 (inclusive)

Outcomes by integer range:

[ 1-389705709] Nxe4, O-O

[389705710-693447748] Nxe4, Bxf7+

[693447749-891852706] Nxe4, O-O, Bxf7+

[891852707-907869927] Nxe4, Resign1

[907869928-923821359] Nxe4, Resign2

[923821360-939707227] Nxe4, Resign3

[939707228-948340913] Nxe4, O-O, Resign1

[948340913-999999969] other

Hash of the complete table:

5281669f329a2392a2162ed82179f750a8d45b86c0da1c532ed34f56ac53095f

2y

so I’m gonna leave them equal so you all can freely pick your fav for the Nxe4

2y

ahg ok I can’t set exactly equal because other already bet

2y

got it, i think

2y

you can bid it now, sorry for the confusion

2y

@Fion tempting but doesn’t work

2y

@deagol it's a fun sacrifice though

2y

@MartinRandall yea could be the crippled engine doesn’t find d5

2y

@deagol I would find d5 but only on heuristics.

2y

@deagol ah yes, obviously

2y

@harfe I thought I’d preempt all the blunders but there’s too many!

2y

@deagol Illegal move (you probably meant Ke2?)

2y

Same for Qe7

2y

@Jason haha yes! thanks.

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