[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 5: What will white play?
10
760Ṁ2344
resolved Mar 16
100%97%
Nxe4
0.3%Other
1.6%
O-O
1.2%
Bxf7+
0.1%
Resign1
0.1%
Resign2
0.1%
Resign3
0.0%
Ke7
0.0%
Qe7
0.0%
Qe2

What will white (Manifold) play in move 5?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4

Previous move:


For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.

The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" are legal moves.

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

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