What will white (Manifold) play in move 4?

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6

For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created. 

The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours.The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" are legal moves.

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.