What will white (Manifold) play in move 4?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6
Market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours.The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" are legal moves.
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ20 | |
| 2 | Ṁ11 | |
| 3 | Ṁ7 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 |
Please continue betting here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-4 for Nf3
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-resign for Resign2
https://pastebin.com/MZgsx1Si can someone download the file and confirm that its sha256sum is correct? And can also confirm that it is Nf3 and Resign2?
Moves by average probability:
0.305866 d3
0.246783 Nf3
0.094063 Bb3
0.084930 f4
0.071660 Ne2
0.010450 b3
0.003928 Resign3
0.003893 Resign2
0.003858 Resign1
0.000000 b4 (removed)
0.000000 a3 (removed)
pick a number between 1 and 999999942 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-250530239] d3, Nf3
[250530240-336587980] d3, Bb3
[336587981-413891751] d3, f4
[413891752-479180838] Nf3, Bb3
[479180839-543933100] d3, Ne2
[543933101-603103778] d3, Nf3, Bb3
[603103779-661732353] Nf3, f4
[661732354-714470996] d3, Nf3, f4
[714470997-763557358] Nf3, Ne2
[763557359-807259163] d3, Nf3, Ne2
[807259164-826986430] Bb3, f4
[826986431-843485878] Bb3, Ne2
[843485879-858290028] f4, Ne2
[858290029-872703739] d3, Bb3, f4
[872703740-884617581] d3, Bb3, Ne2
[884617582-895215436] d3, f4, Ne2
[895215437-905263332] Nf3, Bb3, f4
[905263332-999999942] other
Hash of the complete table:
301c1f05bde840a571abf8d93692afd38bd4177d29cf474903a84c2cb1b3931f