What will white (Manifold) play in move 26?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ43 | |
| 2 | Ṁ31 |
Moves by average probability:
0.671807 Ba3
0.041816 Be2 (removed)
0.006115 Bd4
0.006060 Ke2
pick a number between 1 and 999999999 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-376629249] Ba3, Bd4
[376629250-749880125] Ba3, Ke2
[749880126-999880125] Ba3, Bd4, Ke2
[999880126-999999999] Bd4, Ke2
Hash of the complete table:
a2b032e5057515ecc6b7e854bc215b3124cac7eb7a56c8797a3f73e6f86551b9
@harfe no problem
You go back, Jack
Do it again
Wheel turnin' round and round
You go back, Jack
Do it again
Moves by average probability:
0.671807 Ba3
0.041816 Be2
0.006115 Bd4
0.006060 Ke2
pick a number between 1 and 999999995 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-580109491] Ba3, Be2
[580109492-702086480] Ba3, Be2, Bd4
[702086481-822941444] Ba3, Be2, Ke2
[822941445-907462701] Ba3, Bd4
[907462702-991225475] Ba3, Ke2
[991225476-998386952] Ba3, Bd4, Ke2
[998386953-999140380] Be2, Bd4
[999140380-999999995] other
Hash of the complete table:
583b8eb1b19653fe2e0d98475a8b62f293e710022b0b82001fb35c3dcc06e7ae
@harfe not proper notation, but declaring it valid.
If Manifold fixes their bug between now and close, this will still be valid and "Ba3+" will be invalid.
It wont let me add the correct notation, thinking it’s the same. What do we do, bet on this or make something else like Ba3+ch, Be2a3+ or B-QR3+ or “the white king commands his queene’s bishop into the third house before his queene’s rook pawn, putting the black king in check” https://www.knightschessclub.org/the_history_of_notation.html
@harfe yes I also saw it was allowing duplicates (which was prevented earlier) so I guess they “fixed” that 😔
@deagol For Manifold Plays Chess 4 we could consider using Multi-choice markets with all legal moves as options instead of free response (this should be doable with automation).